Peru polls on the day before the election (UPDATED)

Despite their publication in Peru being against the law in the last week of an election, the pollsters have been out and about and telling foreign journalists about their results. These then tell the non-Peru world and..oh my stars!...in the 21st century world of the interwebnetpipes that news blackout sure works well.

So today pollster Datum has just called Ollanta Humala ahead with 50.8% of valid votes, with Keiko Fujimori on 49.2%, according to Reuters. The poll was taken on June 2nd and third, 5015 people gave their opinions and the margin of error is +/- 1.4%. 

Meanwhile, we're waiting for Peru's most respected pollster Ipsos/Apoyo to give its last poll at 6pm local time (7pm EST), about two hours from now. We hear it will include opinions up to 1pm today, so fresh as a daisy it will be. Your humble scribe will update this post when that report is available.

Update: Big news out of Ipsos/Apoyo this afternoon. Just a couple of minutes ago, Peru's most respected pollster called Ollanta Humala ahead with 51.9% of valid votes and Keiko Fujimori on 48.1%. The poll was taken today, June 4th, from 4000 people and has a margin of error of +/- 1.6%. This means that it's the first time for weeks that Ollanta Humala has shown a polling result that beats out the margin of error. Data from this Reuters news report.

Two charts from IKN108

Just to give you an idea of how important tonight's live TV debate between Ollanta and Keiko is for the presidential election in Peru, with the big vote next Sunday June 5th now just days away:

Peru Prez Poll: Ollanta ahead, according to Imasen

The latest poll from Imasen and published in La Republica was supposed to be published tomorrow, but it got leaked and so La Republica, on this page, has confirmed the numbers.

According to this poll, Ollanta Humala has a slight lead. We note that the newspaper in question supports the Ollanta Humala campaign (about the only serious paper to do so). Nevertheless, this is the first poll to give Ollanta a lead in the last couple of weeks, with the big live TV debate up tomorrow evening (that you out there in the world can watch of CNN's Spanish language service, CNN Expansion, so I understand).

It's going down to the wire, be in no doubt. By the way, separate from the normal IKN Weekly issue 108, subscribers will get a full report on the debate proceedings either late Sunday evening or before the bell Monday morning.

Peru Prez Poll Friday May 27th: IOP/PUCP (trustworthy) puts Keiko a tiny % ahead

This survey just came from IOP/PUCP, a pretty trustworthy source and notably the poll isn't attached to any Peru newspaper or media source. Here's the headline chart:

We got Keiko leading Ollanta again but this poll is WAY closer than recent ones from other companies...a real live too-close-to-call, with nine days to go. Sunday will see the final big crop of polls before the one week pre-election period when no polls can be published there. Then the vote, Sunday June 5th. Then they can all STFU...please.

Peru Prez Poll: Datum says Keiko stretching her lead

A new poll out today by Datum and published in Peru 21 has Keiko up half a point from last Sunday. Here's the chart that shows today's numbers (red) and last weekend's poll (grey).

Note that the Datum/Peru 21 combo is known to be anti-Humala in nature and more reasonable pollster Ipsos/Apoyo had Keiko's lead at under three points last weekend. With that said, the trend shown here can't be good for Humala. The latest Datum poll was taken on May 22nd, asked 1214 people on a national urban/rural basis and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. Data from here.

Nicaragua polling for the 2011 Presidential election

Out just a few minutes ago is the Cid/Gallup Latinoamérica voter intention poll for Nicaragua's Presidential election, due to happen November 6th this year. Here's the chart...

...and incumbent Daniel Ortega is ahead. Second place ten points behind is radio station owner (hmm...that might be useful in the campaign) and congress member Fabio Gadea. Third comes ex Prez Arnoldo Alemán, who did the job between 1997 and 2002 and for some reason wants to do it again and the rest are noise. Data from here.

Argentina's Presidential Election: The polls

Peru isn't the only South American Presidential race this year, as Argentina also goes to the polls in Presidential, regional and congressional elections in October (and if we add in Central America, there's Nica and Guat, too). But over in the Argentina race it's a different story to the too-close-to-callness in Peru. Here are the latest polling numbers from three Argentina pollsters, CEOP, Ricardo Rouvier and Ibarómetro:

So even though she hasn't even thrown her hat into the ring officially, incumbent President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is a mile ahead in the running and in all probability will win in the first round (as Argentina's rules state that if you get more than 40% in the first round of votes and your nearest opposition is more than 10% behind you, you win). Behind Cristina come Ricardo Alfonsín, son of the ex-Prez Raúl, ex-Pres Eduardo Duhalde, eternal candidate Elisa Carrió and ex-Prez for about a day and a half (remember that back in 2001?) Adolfo Rodríguez Saá.

Date from here

Peru Prez Poll: Ipsos/Apoyo calling Keiko slightly ahead

Again, this one is valid votes only and again we include last week's numbers as a reference on the chart:

Ipsos/Apoyo is arguably the most reliable pollster in Peru and the result is basically the same as last week. This one is going down to the wire. More details here, including overall voter intention numbers of 43% Keiko, 39% Ollanta, spoil ballot 11% and undecided 7%.

Note to subbers: The above fits in with the sentiment and calls expressed today in the Weekly.

Peru Prez Polls: Latest result shows stagnation

Just a few minutes ago we had the first weekend poll result out of Peru for the June 5th second round election, from pollster Idice. Here's a chart:

Yup, it's exactly the same numbers as the Idice poll for this time last week, with valid votes calling 51.9% for Keiko Fujimori and 48.1% for Ollanta Humala. So as Idice is likely favouring Keiko slightly (it's a business, dude...don't be naïve) and it was sponsored for this one by a pro-Keiko newspaper (El Expreso, the type of daily that makes National Enquirer look like Pulitzer material), we just have to keep on calling this tight Presidential race exactly that. It's still too close to call, folks.

There will be more polls released today from more reliable companies. Those will make it as comment into this afternoon's IKN Weekly, issue 107, along with the usual chunk of ongoing advice for those exposed to Peru markets (last week's call was right on the button, FWIW). DYODD, dude.

Peru Prez Poll, New Round Two numbers from Datum

Here's the valid votes total for the new Datum poll out this morning.

Points to consider:

1) This poll was commissioned by Peru21, a very anti-Humala publication.
2) Datum has shown results that consistently favour Keiko more than the average of polls in Peru.
3) With that said, the pollster will stand by its numbers and it does seem that Keiko is at least consolidating her small lead in the polls.

The result has a margin of error of +/-2.8% and is a national urban/rural type. 1211 people interviewed. Details here.

Peru Prez Polls, five pollsters in one chart

This weekend has seen four Peru pollsters publish new voter intention figures and here they all are on one chart that also includes the Datum poll out last Thursday that made the local market and currency rally:

Please note that all the polls shown here are for "valid votes" and do not include those polled that said they were either undecided or they'd spoil their ballot. As a general rule of thumb, there seems to be 20% of Peruvians in either of those categories and we can expect around half of them to make up their minds and vote for one or the other candidate. Or in other words, it's the undecideds that will eventually decide this race and there's still everything to play for.

Finally, as regards accuracy I personally would plump for the Ipsos/Apoyo people (green columns) as having the best track record and the ones least influenced by paymasters (yeah, that's diplomatic), although even they are open to crits because the owners are part of the Lima ruling class establishment. Find the full Ipsos/Apoyo poll linked here.

Peru: Latest Ipsos/Apoyo poll puts Keiko in front

It's only by a whisker and it's still correctly described as a technical dead heat, but it's also the first time that Keiko Fujimori has been on top in any survey.

More details here and here.

Peru Prez Poll, Round Two latest numbers

This chart generated from the numbers out of reliable pollster IOP (part of the U. Catolica in Lima), with interviews taken between April 30th and May 3rd and published this Saturday morning.

You want a close race? Here's a close race for yaz. All the details in the IOP page right here.

PS: The full survey PDF is here

Peru: Latest poll has Ollanta Humala 4.2% ahead

Here's the link, here's the chart:

And for those of you into details and subcharts and Spanish language commentary, there's tons of that on pages 3, 4 and 5 of today's edition of La Republica which you can access right here.

Peru Prez Poll, Round Two

A new poll is out today Friday from pollster Datum and published by Peru 21. This might leave it open to accusations of bias (because Peru 21 is an anti-Humala newspaper), but along with a CPI poll from yesterday that had the gap at 3.8%, there's a clear catchup tendency going on that's favouring Keiko Fujimori. Recall that last Sunday the gap was 6% and as I said back then, this one is going to be very close.

I'd only add one other thing right now: Be careful what you wish for. The full Datum poll publication can be found right here.

UPDATE: Highly recommended on this subject for Spanish speakers is this new post from highly esteemed Peru Political Scientist Cynthia Sanborn, someone who has forgotten more about this subject than most of the so-called experts out there know. Unmissable.

Peru: Latest poll

Due to silly rules that have no concept of the 21st century, polls aren't allowed to be published in the country during the final week before a major election but pollsters are allowed to do surveys and release them to foreign journalists and news media. Here's a paste out of a Reuters wire note just released (now got a link to a Spanish language version here and an English language link here):

(Note: election law forbids publication of polls in Peru a week prior
to April 10 voting.)

   (Adds details on poll, election)
   LIMA, April 7 (Reuters) - An Ipsos Apoyo poll gives Peru's
Nationalist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala 28 percent of the
vote in Peru ahead of Sunday's election, and he will likely face
lawmaker Keiko Fujimori in the second round, a source who had access
to the poll said on Thursday.
   Fujimori had 21 percent of the vote, while former President
Alejandro Toledo and former Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski each
had 18 percent in the poll, the source said, asking not to be
identified.
   A second source confirmed Fujimori was favored to face Humala in a
run-off vote scheduled for June 5.
   Humala also leads polls by Apoyo, CPI, Datum and Catholic
University. Those polls have a margin of error of between 2.2 and 2.8
percent. The exact dates and margin of error of the latest Ipsos poll
were not immediately known.
   Investors fear Humala might unwind years of reforms in one of the
world's fastest-growing economies, while Fujimori's critics worry she
would show little respect for human rights.
   Both have disapproval ratings of around 50 percent but are likely
to make it to the second round as a moderate majority splinters
between Toledo, Kuczynski and former Lima Mayor Luis Castaneda.

 (Reporting by Patricia Velez and Teresa Cespedes)
 ((caroline.stauffer atthomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging:
caroline.stauffer.reuters.com at reuters.net))

So this poll shows virtually the same numbers as the last Ipsos/Apoyo poll from Sunday 3rd April where Ollanta Humala was given 27.2%, Keiko Fujimori 20.5%, Alejandro Toledo 18.5%, PPK at 18.1% and the others back there.

UPDATE: No link for this one (sorry...blame Peru's archaic laws, not me), but another pollster PUCP now has "unofficial" figures out today that put Ollanta on 26%, Toledo at 20.8%, Keiko at 20.1% and PPK at 18.1%. It's again notable that the PUCP numbers from today are similar to the PUCP numbers of last Sunday, when it was Ollanta 26.3%, Toledo 20.8%, Keiko 20.3% and PPK 18.5%.

UPDATE 2: Kind reader 'Tweetie' adds this in the comments section:

Here's another one, from the nasdaq site:


Private Peru Polls Show Leftist Still Leading For President

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Two new opinion polls released Thursday confirm the lead of leftist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala ahead of Peru's April 10 general elections.

The opinion polls, which can't be published in Peru due to legal restrictions, show in second place Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, 35, daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori.

The surveys, conducted by pollsters CPI and Ipsos-Apoyo for private clients, show Humala, 48, with about 28% support and Keiko Fujimori with 21.4%.

Both polls show ex-Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, 72, in third place with 18.4% support.

The Ipsos-Apoyo poll shows ex-president Alejandro Toledo with 18.2% support, while the CPI poll shows him further back.

Both polls surveyed around 2,000 people and have an error margin of about two percentage points.

No candidate is expected to win a majority in Sunday's first-round election and a runoff is scheduled on June 5. Any candidate that wins a majority vote in the first round would be declared winner of the overall election, and cancel any second-round vote.

Pollsters are continuing to do surveys and release information to private clients.

Leaked poll numbers for the Peru Presidential elections

Apparently, this is what decent pollster CPI is going to publish some time tomorrow (well, today in fact as it's now seven minutes past midnight Lima time) as the result of its last opinion poll.

Ollanta Humala 28.3%, 
Alejandro Toledo 19.5%, 
Keiko Fujimori 19.0%
PPK 17.5%
Luis Castañeda13.8%.

The source of these numbers has been pretty accurate and fed correct info previously. Please be clear that as today, April 3rd, is the last day pollsters in Peru can publish survey results, we're going to get a whole slew of numbers pushed at us during the day from several different polling companies. In fact we've already has pollster IMA come out with its poll Saturday that puts Toledo (22%) in a clear second place behind Humala (26.1%), with Keiko (17.8%) in third. We'll be taking a deeper look and making some calls on how Peru-exposure may be affected by the run-up and aftermath of next weekend's election in IKN100, out later to subscribers.

UPDATE: IMASEN has its poll out (published in the reputable daily La Republica) which puts Humala on 25%, Toledo on 20% and Keiko on  18.2%. Then comes PPK oon 16.5% and Castañeda on 11.6%.

Peru: A three-way tie for 2nd

This link takes you to the Datum poll on the Peru presidential elections out this morning which has Ollanta Humala leading with 21.4%, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski second on 17.5%, Alejandro Toledo third with 17.4%, Keiko Fujimori fourth with 16.4% and Luis Castañeda's now fatlly wounded campaign now losing three more points at 12.6%.

Notes:

• Don't read anything into the differences between PPK, Toledo and Keiko. That's a three-way tie, period

• April 3rd is the last day for polls, so there's going to be a real flurry of them over the next three days. Reliable PUCP is due out today, most others Sunday.

• Take them all with a pinch of salt these days. The only thing we can really say now is that Luis Castañeda is toast. Everything else is up for grabs.

• On Sunday evening (April 3rd) the live TV debate between the 5 main candidates will be a key moment in the campaign. Until that is out the way, nothing is decided.

• Subscribers: We'll be going into detail again on Sunday and there will probably be a later update on the Sunday evening debate too (especially if something market-moving happens).

UPDATE: Just heard (not sure if these are 100% exact but won't be far wrong) this about the PUCP poll:  Humala 24.3%, Toledo 18.8%, Fujimori 18.4%, PPK 16.8%, Castañeda 12%.

Humala 2nd place in tomorrow's Apoyo poll?

I'll tell you what I've picked up, no more and no less, then it's your choice to believe or not. About half an hour ago (7pm EST Saturday 19th) somebody told me that Ollanta Humala was being put in second place in the IPSOS/Apoyo opinion poll to be published Sunday March 20th for the Presidential vote on April 10th. My source isn't totally convinced of the veracity of this intel because according to said source it came from a friend who was told by a member of the Humala campaign inner circle who in turn claims to have been given an early sneak preview of the numbers that will get published tomorrow. However, my source is sufficiently intruiged with this and gives it enough substance to have passed it on. In the same spirit, this post gets written.

That's all I know up to now (apart from the name of my source and don't even think about asking). Let's see how the IPSOS/Apoyo poll turns out tomorrow morning (one of the best polling firms in Peru as regards accuracy and non-bias, fwiw). If indeed Ollanta Humala is in second place behind Alejandro Toledo, there are going to be a lot of shockwaves. Watch this space.

PS: The integrity and trustworthiness of my source is unquestionable. A straight shooter and one of the good'uns of life.

Peru Presidential Polling: Getting close for second spot

The new poll from the PUCP polling company is out for the April Peru Presidential elections and things are getting interesting:

Toledo still leads, but he's seen a couple of points taken from his popularity rating. Second is the steady-as-she-goes numbers that Keiko Fujimori enjoys and now a clear third is the wilting campaign of Luis Castañeda. Then comes the fun, as both Ollanta Humala and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski have made up ground on the two battling it out for the second spot in the run-off, with both having found some momentum. In particular, Ollanta Humala has got to within four points of taking second spot. 

If we check how the PUCP poll has developed over the last five polls....

...the trends get clearer. Castañeda has faded, and Ollanta and PPK have found new favour. One thing we haven't seen so far is a bunch of negative attacks on Ollanta Humala, as up to now the top three have kept their insults largely for one another. With one month to go, there's a mighty scrap on now so expect to hear a lot more about Ollanta in these final weeks (and not all of it will be pretty).

I still say Toledo wins (as least worst, not as best), by the way. All data from here.