Peru: Eve of vote polling

These numbers are not allowed to be published inside Peru but have been made available to foreign journalists and commentators by the relevant polling companies. There is no margin of error nor is there the sample number given with the polls, so you just have to go with the headline numbers and be done. And sorry, no links either. So here we go with the numbers from IPSOS/Apoyo and from CPI:

IPSOS/Apoyo
Ollanta Humala 29.5%
Keiko Fujimori 21.5%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 20.5%
Alejandro Toledo 19.1%
Luis Castañeda 12.1%

CPI
Ollanta Humala 29.5%
Keiko Fujimori 22.1%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 21.5%
Alejandro Toledo 19.1%
Luis Castañeda 11.5%

UPDATE: The numbers above are good, but strangely Reuters is now quoting a different set of numbers for the IPSOS poll (they also have the sample number, 6000). Reuters goes:

Ollanta Humala 28.1%
Keiko Fujimori 21.1%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 19.9%
Alejandro Toledo 16.8%
Luis Castañeda not mentioned in Reuters note

UPDATE 2: More polling noise here, with Venezuela's Globovision reporting on pollster's IMASEN and its vote simulation poll today that puts Toledo in second place. It also has numbers for the CPI and Ipsos polls that are different to the above numbers. Methinks disinformation is the order of the day and that we really need to wait 24 hours to find out some solid stats before going any further. IKN signing out for Sunday.

Annals of opinion poll predictions, Luis Castañeda edition

Part one: In this report dated today and timed 07:40am, one-time frontrunner for the Peru Presidential election assures the world that he will not drop any further in the polls than his current 15.0% rating.

Part two: In this report dated today and timed 08:36am, Castañeda polls 13.8%.

 

For what it's worth, today's IMA poll (margin of error +/- 4%) has Alejandro Toledo in the lead at 23.9%, Ollanta Humala in second spot at 21.9% and Keiko Fujimori in third at 17.6%. Then comes PPK with 16.9% and bottom of the five Castañeda with the aforementioned 13.8%. But be careful from now on, as the polls coming between now and Sunday 3rd are likely to be....errrr......how to put this diplomatically?...errr....to the taste of the owners or commissioners of the surveys.